Conflicts over access to water and fertile land will increase with increasing populations. The armed conflicts in Syria can in many instances be traced back to lack of water for farming due to less water in the rivers of Euphrates and Tigris in combination with long and severe droughts. The outcome of the Iraq and Syrian conflicts may rest on who controls the region’s dwindling water supplies.

Global warming, climate change and droughts are increasingly severe in the Middle East. According to NASA, the Eastern Mediterranean areas experience the worst drought in 900 years. Millions of people have had to move from their land to nearby cities or to other countries in order to survive.
The Earth’s climate is changing at a rate that has exceeded most scientific forecasts. Some families and communities have already started to suffer from the negative side of climate change, forced to leave their homes in search of a new beginning.
For UNHCR, the consequences of climate change are enormous. Scarce natural resources such as drinking water are likely to become even more limited. Many crops and some livestock are unlikely to survive in certain locations if conditions become too hot and dry, or too cold and wet. Food security, already a significant concern, will become even more challenging.
People will have to try and adapt to this situation, but for many this will mean a conscious move to another place to survive. Such moves, or the adverse effects that climate change may have on natural resources, may spark conflict with other communities, as an increasing number of people compete for a decreasing amount of resources. UNHCR: The storm ahead

Refugees are in extreme situations. Unfortunately, there will most likely be many many more in the near future. Most climate refugees tend to become Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and have as such no formal nor legal rights as refugees until they cross a national border. Climate refugees have until now, no special legal status.
Climate change – a risk multiplier
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly – Fully convinced that climate change-related risks will affect international security through increased natural disasters; stress on economic, food and water security; risks to public health; internal and external migration; and resource competition;
Acknowledging that climate change-related risks are significant threat multipliers that will shape the security environment in areas of concern to the Alliance and have the potential to significantly affect NATO planning and operations;
Recognising the need to supplement climate action with efforts to strengthen the resilience of states and societies at risk through adaption measures, development and humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding and conflict prevention programmes;
RESOLUTION 427 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Long-term changes in climate will produce more extreme weather events and put greater stress on critical Earth systems like oceans, freshwater, and biodiversity. These in turn will almost certainly have significant effects, both direct and indirect, across social, economic, political, and security realms during the next 20 years. These effects will be all the more pronounced as people continue to concentrate in climate-vulnerable locations, such as coastal areas, water-stressed regions, and ever-growing cities.
National Intelligence Council (2016) Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change”
What US intelligence agencies just said about the climate crisis (2021)
“Climate change will increasingly challenge the ability of states to deliver services and provide stability. Extreme climate events, in particular, can strain the social fabric and the relationship between governments and populations. While government responsiveness in the face of disasters can strengthen the social contract, poor and slow responses are likely to weaken it, contributing to further instability and feeding into the downward spiral of fragility, violence and vulnerability”
Climate diplomacy (2017) Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate. Analysing the Links Between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups
Read more
- Timely readings on global climate migration (2022)
- Climate-driven movement of people is adding to a massive migration already under way to the world’s cities (2022)
- Climate denial is waning on the right. What’s replacing it might be just as scary (2021)
- The great climate migration (NYT interactive)
- Extreme heat hurts human health. Its effects must be mitigated – urgently (2021)
- Extreme Weather Displaces Record Numbers of People as Temperatures Rise (2021)
- Thousands of people, many fleeing persecution and conflict, will risk everything this year, seeking a new life of freedom and opportunity (2021)
- Warming Trends: Climate Refugees, Ocean Benefits and Tropical Species Moving North (2021)
- Climate disasters ‘caused more internal displacement than war’ in 2020 (2021)
- Groundswell Part 2 : Acting on Internal Climate Migration (2021)
- The coming mass displacement will force us all to face a dark path of spiraling conflict (2020)
- IOM (2018) World Migration report 2018
- Extreme Weather Displaced a Record 7 Million in First Half of 2019
- Climate Change Is Key Part of Understanding Migration, GAO Tells Trump Administration (2019)
- Climate Change to Further Escalate Violence in Western Africa (2019)
- World Bank (2018) Meet the Human Faces of Climate Migration. By 2050 the worsening impacts of climate change in three densely populated regions of the world could see more than 140 million people move within their countries’ borders
- At the Root of Exodus: Food security, conflict and international migration (UN-WFP May 2017)
- The Refugees The World Barely Pays Attention To (2018)
- The flow towards Europe
Europe is experiencing the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Based on data from the United Nations, we clarify the scale of the crisis. - Global forced displacement hits record high. UNHCR Global Trends report finds 65.3 million people, or one person in 113, were displaced from their homes by conflict and persecution in 2015.
- Vietnamese farmers are migrating en masse to escape climate change (July 2018)
- Heat Waves Creeping Toward a Deadly Heat-Humidity Threshold (Aug 2017)
- The Global Crisis That’s Creating 21.5 Million Refugees Each Year (Dec 2017)
- Why Saudi extremism is an argument for electric cars, wind and solar energy (June 2017)
- This is what climate change looks like: Regional political instability and the resulting export of terrorism are climate change problems. (March 2016)
- 2 critical climate change problems most people don’t know about (March 2017)
- TEDxPentagon – Rear Admiral David Titley, USN – Climate Change
- “Climate Change War” Is Not a Metaphor
- Pentagon Says Global Warming Poses an Immediate Risk to National Security. Climate change a threat multiplier
- Pentagon: Global Warming Poses ‘Immediate Risk’ To National Security
- A military view on climate change: It’s eroding our national security and we should prepare for it (Oct 2016)
- Immigration and Terrorism Will Increase With Climate Change, Says Military Leader
- Climate Change Is ‘Perhaps The World’s Most Fearsome Weapon Of Mass Destruction’
- Military Experts Issue a Warning Climate Skeptics Won’t Want to Hear (March 2017)
- The migrant crisis is a mere gust of the hurricane that will soon engulf Europe (Nov 2015)
- Climate change wars are coming and building walls won’t help, top general warns (Oct 2016)
- Lannoo, L. /CICERO (2016) Peace for climate
- Alex Kirby (2016) Climate scientists’ high degree of concern
- Climate: Africa’s Human Existence Is at Severe Risk
- Climate Change Dries Up Nicaragua
- Climate Change (I) Will the Middle East Become ‘Uninhabitable’?
- Climate Change Could Make Parts of Middle East and North Africa ‘Uninhabitable’
- Climate Change and the Middle East (II) No Water in the Kingdom of the Two Seas—Nor Elsewhere
- Middle East – The Mother of All Humanitarian Crises (May 2016)
- ‘Human Suffering Has Reached Staggering Levels’
- UNHCR (2016) Climate Change and Disasters
- How Climate Change Leads to Violent Conflict Around the World. –Drought, desertification and deforestation are some of the climactic phenomena that have led to environmental racism and violence in postcolonial regions. (April 2017)
- Case Study of Transboundary Dispute Resolution: the Tigris-Euphrates basin
- Tigris-Euphrates River Dispute
- Water supply key to outcome of conflicts in Iraq and Syria, experts warn
- Climate Change Hastened Syria’s Civil War – Human-induced drying in many societies can push tensions over a threshold that provokes violent conflict (Scientific American 2015)
- Earth Is Parched Where Syrian Farms Thrived (NYT 2010)
- This Cartoon Succinctly Explains The Background To The Syrian Conflict
- The 30 Million on the Line – Sea level rise BanglaDesh (June 2016)
- The number of refugees increases with global warming (video)
- Epic Middle East Heat Wave Is Being Compared to Weapon of Mass Destruction (Aug 2016)
- Hidden Connections, which explores the link between climate change and child marriage. Child marriage in Bangladesh
- World Bank (2014) Climate Change and Migration. Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa
- UNHCR figures at a glance – Refugees and IDPs
- De usynlige flyktningene (CICERO, Jan 2017)
- Klima, fred og sikkerhet (CICERO, Jan 2017)
- Center for Climate and Security
- Rethinking the refugee camp
- Africa: Humankind’s Ability to Feed Itself, Now in Jeopardy (Feb 2017)
- Africa: Experts – African Hunger Crisis Largely Man-made (Feb 2017)
- Trump’s Defense Secretary Cites Climate Change as National Security Challenge (March 2017)
- The Human Carnage From Billionaires Trying to Carve Up the Planet to Build Their Empires Is Astounding. From Yemen to Haiti and everywhere in between, the poorest citizens are punished for unknown crimes. (Aug 2017)
- The American War Machine Is Already on the Death March Across the African Continent. The root causes of the conflicts are the same as elsewhere: environmental destruction, joblessness, war. (Oct 2017)
- New York Times (2016). Living in China´s Expanding Deserts
- Feng, Q. et al. (2015). What Has Caused Desertification in China?
- Luedi, J. (2016). China’s growing deserts a major political risk. Global Risk Insights,
- Tao, W. (2016). Desertification and Land Degradation in China. International Soil and Water Conservation Research
- The Telegraph. (2014). ‘Water war’ in Brazil as Rio’s supply threatened
- Conflict on the Nile
- New Evidence Confirms Risk That Mideast May Become Uninhabitable (March 2017)
- Floods, Hurricanes, Droughts… When Climate Sets the Agenda (Sept 2017)
- Widespread Natural Disasters Threaten Development Goals (Nov 2017)
- We Don’t Think of Californians as Climate Refugees Yet, but We Should (Nov 2017)
- Why These 8 States Could Soon Form the ‘Great American Desert’ (Nov 2017)
- Climate Change Is Increasing Regional Conflict and Creating Millions of Refugees Across the Globe. We will all be better served, better prepared and better protected if we act together (Nov 2017)
- A Warming World Creates Desperate People (June 2018)
- Foreign affairs (2015): The rivers of Babylon
- Gleick, P. (2014) Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria (American Meteorological Society)
- Kaufman, A. (2016) Middle East Summers could become unlivable by the end of the century, Huffington post
- The roasting of the Middle East. Infertile Crescent. More than war, climate change is making the region hard to live in (Economist, Aug 2016)
- Kolbert, E. (2015) Unsafe climates, Newyorker
- Bjørke, (2014) Conflict on the Nile
- More Evidence on Climate Change and Conflict Links: Context is Key (2017)
Next
Home | Chapter 3 | 3. Impacts |
3.1 More water vapor | ||
3.2 Sea level rise | ||
3.3 Polar sea ice | ||
3.4 Air pollution | ||
3.5 Acidification | ||
3.6 Health | ||
3.7 Extreme weather | ||
3.8 Economy | ||
3.9 Refugees and conflicts | ||
3.10 Glaciers | ||
3.11 Tipping points | ||
3.12 Biodiversity | ||
3.13 Water | ||
Chapter 4 | 4. Ecosystems |